It’s probably obvious that I love baseball.  Why do I love it so much?  Oh, a lot of reasons, but one reason you may not know is this: I love stats.  If you read my blog long enough, you will learn this.  One of my favorite quotes from my favorite baseball movie, (though Mark Newman would disagree with me….we should resurrect this debate at some point) is when Kevin Costner’s character says, “We count everything in baseball.  That’s all we do” in response to his date’s surprise that he knows the exact number of times he’s lost.

But it’s a fact that baseball and numbers go hand in hand.  And I love numbers when it comes to baseball. (Yet, I hate math.  Ironic?)  I love double situational splits and knowing who is the most productive leadoff hitter on the team.  I love knowing a certain guy dominates left handed hitters or that some guys just see the ball better in the day.

But what I really love is that stats back up my gut.  For instance, in my gut, I know that Wainwright is the leading candidate for Cy Young.  But how do I prove it to you?  You might like Roy Halladay.  (If you like anybody else for the Cy Young, read this post because you are wrong.)  I show you his stats.  And if you’re going to disagree with me, you better come back with stats.  And more stats than the fact that Ubaldo’s has 17 wins.

I also like delving into the game more with stats because it gives us something else to talk about.  You can get a recap of the game anywhere, so I like to go beyond that.  So if you have any ideas of things to discuss, stats-wise, just let me know.

So in my previous post, I was criticizing Holliday’s lack of production behind Albert.  Most of all, his lack of production when Albert walks ahead of him.  I had no idea what the numbers are, but I watch enough Cardinal games to know that when Pujols is getting walked, most of the time Holliday is making an out.  But to be 100% sure, I need to go to the stats.  That’s how I convince you and double check that my gut instinct is right.

So here are the numbers.

Albert Pujols has been walked 83 times this season, good enough for the second most in the NL.  28 of them have been intentional passes.  50 of his walks have been when Matt Holliday was hitting directly behind him.  Of those 50 free passes, Holliday has made an out 39 times.  Of the 39 outs, 23 ended the inning, 2 ended the game and only one was a productive out….an RBI sac fly.

So what did he do in his other 11 plate appearances?  He singled four times, doubled once, hit 3 home runs, walked twice and was hit by a pitch once.  Ironically, all 3 of those home runs were 3-run homers.  Maybe the key is just getting two people on ahead of Holliday??

All this means is that when Albert gets walked directly in front of Matt, Matt’s hitting an abysmal .174.  I mean, seriously?  .174???  I didn’t bother looking up what other guys are hitting after Albert in those other 25 walks, but I have to believe that anything is better than .174.  Personally, I would love to see Holliday hitting in front of Albert again.  He gets better pitches and there’s a good chance if he can get on, at least Pujols will drive him in more times than not.  Yes, taking Holliday out of the cleanup spot would mean that Pujols would get walked a little more, but is that all bad?  As long as you have someone that is getting the job done from time to time, we will still get runs, not to mention Pujols RBI total going up as well.

What floors me is that LaRussa has to know this.  And he is a stats guy to the extreme.  If one guy hits better at 7:34 than 7:33, he won’t hesitate to pinch hit.  He brings in pitchers only to face one batter.  But yet he continues to let Holliday into out after out.

As I said previously, where this will really hurt us is in the playoffs.  Some teams won’t hesitate to walk Pujols 4 times in the game, if they know that Holliday will make the last out.  Something has to be done.

But what do you think, Cardinal fans?  Am I crazy?  Would it be a mistake to hit Holiday 2nd again?  Or are you with me on this one?  If he would hit 2nd, who should clean up?  Rasmus?  Yadi?  Feliz?  Someone else?

Trying my hand at managing,
Tiffany