Tagged: awards

Live to die another day

Although, the inevitable will eventually happen, it has not happened yet.  I’m not sure why, but for some reason it makes me happy that the Reds were not able to clinch today because of the Cardinals victory over the Cubs.  It doesn’t really matter when the outcome will be the same, but it makes me happy nonetheless.  And of course, it’s always great to get a win over the Cubbies, considering how poorly we’ve played them this year.

The elimination number is now 1 and it is completely out of our hands.  We could win every game the rest of the season (not likely) and it wouldn’t matter.  One single win from the Reds and they will be throwing champagne all over each other.  Still, I hope we win.  I’d like to see them earn it as opposed to just giving them the postseason.

In other news, Albert hit another home run and has that easily under lock.  He’s in a dead heat with Gonzalez for RBI leader and needs to beat him out in that to have a shot at MVP.  I think he’s earned it, but they will be itching to give it to anybody, but Pujols, so he’ll have to do all that and then some to take home the hardware this year.

Close to over,
Tiffany

Wainwright gets 20

Sometimes it’s hard to believe a team with so mach talent on paper has lost so much, but sometimes a scrappier team just seems to have what it takes.  We saw it when the ’04 Redbirds were shockingly swept while the ’06 version went the distance.  Baseball’s funny that way.  Funny or makes you want to beat your head against the wall.  Either way.

But with the Reds only 3 games away from celebrating, the Cardinals still have a lot of talent.  And that is seen in their accomplishment of many different personal milestones and pursuit of personal achievements.

Albert has hit 40 homers again, Holliday has hit 100 RBIs and now today, Wainwright has reached his 20th win.  Honestly, it should have come before now, but either way, he’s now reached that mark for the first time in his career.  He continues to make this Cy Young Race neck and neck.  Halladay and Wainwright are tied atop the league in both wins and strikeouts.  Wainwright leads Halladay in ERA by a smidge.  The difference is that barring unforseen circustmances, Halladay should get two more starts, while Wainwright is only guaranteed one.  However, it’s not inconceivable that he could go on one less day of rest and get two more starts in.  So this race is far from over, as we see how it ends up playing out.

The last couple of days have been fun, watching the Memphis youngsters come up and give the club a boost.  Add into that Wainwright’s 20th win and it’s about as much fun as you’re going to have when your team is 7 games out of 1st place.

Congrats Adam,
Tiffany

Individual Awards, part 3 (Rookie of the Year)

So far I’ve looked at the Cardinals chances of bring home the MVP and the Cy Young in order to ease my pain as I watch the Cardinals lose game after game.  Tonight, I will look at the final of the big 3 individual awards: Rookie of the Year.

The Cardinal contender in this category is Jaime Garcia.

Garcia, of course, is a pitcher.  Therein lies the interesting thing about this award.  In the MVP, we compared hitters to hitters and in the Cy Young, pitchers to pitchers.  And all of the other likely candidates besides Garcia are hitters.  Still, we will try and make a good analysis of this award.

The NL has a lot of great talent this year.  In fact, there are many names, I won’t go into detail about, like Stanton, Colvin, Castro, Desmond, among others.  I’m going to look at the top 3 hitters contending for this award, plus Garcia.

First, the hitters.  They are: Jason Heyward (Braves), Gaby Sanchez (Marlins) and Buster Posey (Giants).  The stats break down like this:

Sanchez     139 games    .283 / .350 / .470      19 HR        81 RBI
Heyward     132 games    .286 / .401 / .475      18 HR        71 RBI
Posey           97 games    .324 / .373 / .522      15 HR        62 RBI

There are obviously a lot of other numbers too, but all of that will still point to the same thing.  Sanchez and Heyward have played the entire year, while Boster Posey was called up at the end of May.  Clearly, Posey has the better average, but is it fair to compare his 364 at-bats against the other guys who have around 500 at-bats?

Sanchez’ Marlins aren’t going anywhere, but that’s not why I wouldn’t give him this award.  I think Heyward and Sanchez are pretty similar, but I give the edge to Heyward.  I think he’s the overall better player, and has really delivered in the 2nd half for an Atlanta team dreaming of October.

It is a tough call between Heyward and Posey though.  Both of these guys are good.  And 80% of the time, I would give the award to the guy who has done the tough work of the 162 game grind that is baseball.  But Posey may be that one exception to the rule.  This is not just a guy with good numbers.  This is a guy who has encompassed exactly what a catcher should be.  He came in to replace Bengie Molina (not an easy task) and started playing like a seasoned veteran.  He has led this team as a catcher, handling the pitching staff with ease.  He has come through in the clutch many times.  But if you want to talk numbers, let’s talk numbers.  In all of those less at-bats, he is still only 3 homers and 9 RBis shy of Heyward.

So while I think you can make a case for either guy and I wouldn’t think it a travesty, if one guy got picked over the other, if it were my vote, I would cast it for Buster Posey.

So now, what about Garcia?

How do you compare his line with Posey’s?  Obviously, you can’t.  What you can do is look at what kind of numbers rookies need to have to get the ROY.  It varies year to year, but at least we can get a ballpark.  The last NL pitcher to win the award was Dontrelle Willis in 2003.  But we have a couple more recent examples.

Last year JA Happ got 2nd in the vote and in 2006, Justin Verlander received the award for the AL.  (Huston Street won it as a pitcher in 2005, but as a closer, which is a whole other dynamic.)  Let’s look at Garcia compared with Verlander and Happ.

Jaime Garcia          28 GS   163.1 IP      13-8      2.70      132 K       64 BB
JA Happ                 23 GS    166.0 IP     12-4      2.93      119 K       56 BB
Verlander               30 GS    186.0 IP     17-9      3.63      123 K       60 BB

His initial numbers are better than Happ’s, but of course Happ only got 2nd place.  Verlander had an amazing 17 wins, but his ERA was astronomical.  And Garcia kills them both in strikeouts.

The other question is, will Garcia pitch again this year?  He has skipped two starts for “fatigue.”  This is the most innings he has ever pitched and it’s catching up with him.  Now that the Cardinals are out of it, management might feel it’s best to shut him down for the rest of the year.  Garcia wants to pitch again, but they will be careful with the valuable southpaw.

Garcia’s number are great.  But in a year, where there are many different worthwhile candidates, I don’t see the voters giving it to a rookie with his numbers.  But if he pitches again (or even twice more) and adds 1-2 more wins and lowers his ERA even more, I think he forces the voters to take him seriously for the award.

It will be interesting to see how this one plays out.  What’s your take?  Who do you like for NL Rookie of the Year?  Is there a guy on your team not getting enough love because he’s playing a non-contender?

The youngster has game,
Tiffany

How I feel

You know how I feel?  I feel like you do when you see someone knock a glass of grape juice off of a table and it’s going to hit the carpet and you can see it

300px-Kool_aid_spill.jpg

happening…..in…..slow…..motion…..
but you know that no matter what you do, you won’t be able to react in time to do anything about it.  You know that feeling?  Well, that’s how the Cardinals make me feel right now.  As they slowly crawl their way to mathematical elimination by the Reds, that is exactly how I feel.  Like I can see it happening, but I can’t do one thing about it.  Anybody else know what I’m talking about?  No?  Just me?  Ok, then.

Oh and for the record, how in the world have 28% people voted for Ubaldo Jimenez for the NL Cy Young on mlb.com’s poll.  Are you kidding me?  I mean….seriously, are you kidding me?  You want to vote for Halladay, fine.  I can respect that.  But Jimenez?  19 game winner.  Great.  Decent ERA and decent strikeouts.  But that’s it.  Decent.  Not great.  At least not as great as the other two horses in this race.  This is 100% a toss-up between Halladay and Wainwright and it’s going to come down until probably the last day of the season, depending how many more times LaRussa struts Wainwright out to the mound.

So if you voted for Jimenez, please tell me why, ’cause I know I can’t figure it out.

19 wins doesn’t make you Cy Young,
Tiffany

Individual Awards, part 1 (MVP)

Since the chance of October for our Redbirds is slowly disappearing before our eyes, I have turned my attention to rooting for the individual awards.  The Cardinals have a very legitimate chance of bring home the 3 biggest pieces of individual hardware this year.  The Cardinals competing for these awards are:

  • Albert Pujols for MVP
  • Adam Wainwright for Cy Young
  • Jaime Garcia for Rookie of the Year

Two things to note before I talk about each of these guys.  One, I would give up each of these awards for another World Series ring.  And by their comments, I know each of them feel the same way.  Two, even though I would like to see the Cardinals win, I try not to be biased.  So that’s why I’m going to compare the number and look at who I think, legitimately, should be the winner in each of these categories.  But, of course, as always, you can feel free to agree, disagree or tell me I’m crazy.  On to the awards!

MVP
Albert is a candidate every year for this award.  The awesome thing about Pujols is that even when everyone says he’s having a “down year,” his numbers are still through the charts.  Most players would kill to put up half the numbers he does in a season.  The same thing happens whenever people say he’s “slumping.”  Or most recently, they said he wouldn’t be able to hit as well because of his left elbow.  Then, he promptly went out and hit 2 home runs in the same game.  That is Albert Pujols in a nutshell.

The last time I argued for Pujols as MVP (here, if you’d like to read it), I felt his only major competition was Joey Votto.  Since that time, however, Carlos Gonzaelez, has definitely wiggled his way into the conversation.  And this late in September, I feel very confident asserting that the MVP will go to one of those 3.  So, if the season ended today, who gets it the award?  Let’s break it down.

Triple crown categories
Pujols        .308 .AVG (6th), 39 HR (1st), 104 RBI (1st)
Votto          .321 .AVG (3rd), 34 HR (2nd), 103 RBI (2nd)
Gonzalez   .337 .AVG (1st), 32 HR (4th), 101 RBI (3rd)

Other categories
Pujols         85 walks (2nd),  69 Ks,  .401 OBP (3rd), .595 .SLG (2nd)
Votto           83 walks (3rd), 112 Ks, .423 OBP (1st),   .594 .SLG (3rd)
Gonzalez    77 walks (4th), 103 Ks, .374 OBP (14th), .610 .SLG (1st)

Clutch hitting
Pujols   RISP .341/.508/.651, RISP & 2 outs .348/.595/.652, Bases loaded .125/.200/.250
Votto    RISP .381/.503/.678, RISP & 2 outs .326/.475/.674, Bases loaded . 300/.364/.600
Gonz.  RISP .317/.359/.561, RISP & 2 outs .263/.344/.456, Bases loaded  .250/.286/.500

Other factors
Even though the numbers should be based on 2010 alone, some voters will not be able to help but look at Pujols’ body of work.  He’s been consistently great for 10 seasons.  They might see this as a lucky year for Votto.  However, that could work for Votto.  Some voters will be tired of seeing the same guys get it year after year and want to go with someone new like Votto or Gonzalez.  There is also the factor of getting your team to the postseason.  It shouldn’t be a factor, but it is for some.  If the Cardinals are out, but the Reds and Rockies make it, that could make a difference.

The verdict?
Still too close to call.  One day it looks like Pujols is the winner and the next day Votto will put up good numbers and take the lead.  So this is a race that I think will not be able to be determined until the last day of the season.  After all 162 games have been played, the winner will be determined and even then there will likely be disagreement.  It’s not a “shoo-in” year for anybody.

So that’s my analysis of the MVP award this year.  I will be excited to properly debate it once the season is over and we have the final numbers to look at.

I will look at the Cy Young and the Rookie of the Year in a future post.  Wainwright’s performance (or lack thereof, so far) tonight will change his numbers and how he stacks up in that competition.

Bring home the hardware,
Tiffany

Glimmer of hope

Just when the Cardinals make you think they’re out of it, they do something like this.  Somehow, even though they have looked like little leaguers the last couple weeks losing to teams that have long been out of the postseason hunt, they come up huge against the Reds.

That’s not to say this was an easy win.  They didn’t beat the Reds badly like they did when they swept them not like back.  They kicked, screamed and clawed their way to this 3-2 win.  But hey, it all shows up as a “W” when it’s all over and that’s what counts.

The Cardinals have a long, long way to go to be thinking about October, but they have kept hope alive among Cardinal fans everywhere, even if only for a moment.  In order to win, they are going to have to start playing some really good baseball.  And they will have to do it against good teams who are also battling for one of those 4 NL postseason spots.  And they are going to have to start producing more than 3 runs of offense per game.

But again, how good is Jaime Garcia?  To limit the Reds to only to runs was phenomenal.  I really hope they at least consider him for Rookie of the Year.  I don’t know that he’s well-known enough to get the win, but if it wasn’t for Garcia, the Cardinals would be about 20 games out right now and thinking about golf during the off season.

As it stands, we’re still 7 games out.  But it’s better than 9.  We have our two best pitchers going the next two days and so a sweep at Busch is not out of the question.  That would still put us only at 5, but you have to start somewhere, right?  I just want to see the bats come alive again.  I’d love to give Carp or Wainwright about 15 runs, so they can just cruise to an easy victory.

In these 1 run games, every time a Red reached base, I was basically having a heart attack.  (Yes, I am very dramatic when I watch Cardinals baseball.  You should have seen me in 2006.)

Then, of course, we have to talk about Brandon Phillips.  Obviously, everybody knew he was going to get booed.  But what was great was that he strikeout swinging for the fences and proceeded to do sqat the rest of the game.  Phillips continues to show that he has no ability to back up his big talk and I love it.  I saw one play where he fouled a ball off to the stands on the 1st base side and a fan threw his foul ball back on the field.  All of that would have been moot with a victory, but winning makes it even sweeter.

A recent poster said that I need only “believe” that the Cardinals can do it.  They’ve made that difficult recently, but with last night’s game that glimmer of hope is still there.  What do you Cardinal fans think?  Had you given up home or do you still believe?

Series win today boys,
Tiffany

Cardinals…the Pirates are the WORST team in baseball

I didn’t get to see last night’s game against the Pirate and I am not sad about that at all.  Losing a series to the worst team in baseball is not how I anticipated this series going.  How frustrating to see the Cardinal offense to run hot and cold.  A couple games we’re scoring 9+ runs and then we can’t even squeak out more than a few hits.  The pitching has been more than adequate, but the offense is simply not producing.  We have plenty of guys who can hit, but they actually need to do it.  The only good news if we do make it to October is that against good pitching, we seem to do alright.

It’s frustrating, but it’s over.  Hopefully, we can put this Pittsburgh series behind us and move on to playing the Nationals.  It’s still somewhat worrisome though because this is another sub. 500 last place team, playing spoiler and playing with nothing to lose.  But if anybody can get us back us track, it would be once again, Chris Carpenter.  He did against the Giants in his last start and let’s hope he has his good stuff again because you just simply never know about the Cardinal offense these days.

We remain 3 1/2 games behind Cincinnati in the central and 1 game behind the Phillies for the wild card.  Luckily, Houston has been our friend, beating the Phils in some very tight games.  Did you see the extra inning game where Roy Oswalt had to play left field?  I love stuff like that.  These guys grew up playing baseball; they’re athletes at the professional level.  Don’t tell me he doesn’t know how to catch a fly ball.  And he got a chance to prove that he indeed can, in the very first batter of the inning.  It never should have happened though.  He was inserted when Ryan Howard was ejected by the third base umpire.  Watch the replay.  That guy was itching to throw Howard out.  I’ve never seen a more visual display of an ego or a power trip in my life.  It was ridiculous.

Both Pujols and Wainwright, serious contenders for the awards of MVP and Cy Young, respectively, are starting to have serious competition.  There was a time I was ready to give the award to both of these guys hands down, but for now, I would say in both races, it’s simply too close to call.  Pujols and Votto are neck and neck.  Pujols leads Votto in home runs and RBI, but not by much, especially after Votto went yard twice last night.  Pujols was gaining ground in average, even being as close as .01 point away.  But is 0-fer tonight did not help his cause there.

And the same goes for the Cy Young race.  At this point, I see it only as a two-horse race between  Wainwright and the Phillies, Roy Halladay.  Again, Wainwright and Halladay are neck and neck in this race.  Wainwright narrowly edges out Halladay in ERA and wins, while Halladay has a pretty comfortable lead in strikeouts.

In both of these races, hands could still change several times the rest of the season.  I don’t see any of these four guys letting up, so it looks like it will probably come down to who gets extra-hot this last month of the season.  To make matters even more interesting, all three of the clubs these four represent (Reds, Cardinals, Phillies) could theoretically see the postseason.

Moving past Pittsburgh,
Tiffany

Making lemons out of lemonade: tough loss, but two important home runs & MVP talk

This game was frustrating in so many ways.  To name a few:

  •  Kyle Loshe, proclaimed healthy from surgery. was his same unproductive self.
  • The Cardinals’ rally was too little, too late because they let the game get away early.
  • We let the Cubs have their first series win since the last time they played us.  Why can a team 17 games back only beat us?
  •  Coupled with a Reds loss, this means we’re back in 2nd place.

And on and on and on it goes.

We all know how awful this game was, so no point in rehashing every last detail.  Instead, let’s talk about the couple meager good things about this game.  Both things are home runs from two different players at two very, very different points in their career.

The first was a surprise home run by recent call-up, Steven Hill.  This guy’s life sure has
changed in the last week.  He’s probably the only guy in the free world who appreciates steven hill.jpgJohnny Cueto’s Bruce Lee impersonation.  As a result of Jason LaRue going on the DL from Cueto’s antics, the Cardinals needed a back-up catcher.  For only logistical reasons (the Memphis Redbirds were too far away), the call-up went to AA catcher Stephen Hill, as opposed to AAA catcher, Matt Pagnozzi.  There was talk of sending Hill down and bringing up Pagnozzi (yes, he is the nephew of famed Cardinal catcher, Tom Pagnozzi), but when the game initially got out of control today, LaRussa decided to give Yadier Molina a rest.  Yadi has caught more innings than any other NL catcher this season.  In his second major league at-bat ever, Hill got his first major league hit via the long ball.  Barely over the fence and barely fair, but a home run is a home run.  This sparked the only Cardinal rally of the day.

The second was certainly nowhere as unexpected as Steven Hill’s.  This home run was by Albert Pujols, a man who has done that very thing 395 times before.  Still this was a very significant home run, as it gave Pujols his 30th home run of the year, meaning he has done that in his first 10 years of playing.  No other play IN THE HISTORY OF THE GAME has even done that their first 7 years of playing.

Albert has been really heating up in August as I mentioned here.  This should surprise no one as, historically, August has been his best month hitting-wise.  But until recently, many people had pretty much written his season off as merely “good” as opposed to “ridiculously awesome” as it’s previously been.  But those of us who have had the privilege of watching Albert game after game for the past 10 seasons can tell you that any “slump” he has does not last for long and he will continually to be an MVP threat every year.  I’ve read a few articles not really even giving Albert a chance.  I think that once you have been so good for so long, people tend to take what you are doing for granted and not realize that we literally are watching history in the making every time he takes a swing.  In a separate article, a writer stated that there were three guys that had a possibility of making a run at the Triple Crown this year: Miguel Cabrera, Josh Hamilton and Joey Votto.  All great players for sure, but how do you not put Pujols on the list?  Sure, his average was low at the time (and by “low” I mean around .300), but one hot streak and he’s right there.

Recently, I looked at Wainwright’s bid to be the 2010 Cy Young winner and tonight, I would like to look at Albert’s numbers to see if he could possibly be the NL MVP for the 3rd straight year.  We’ll also look at his competitors and break it down similar to how I did the Cy Young award.

The Numbers
Obviously, the place to start, what do the numbers say about Pujols and the guy that many think is the possible MVP / Triple Crown threat.

    
                      G           AB       .AVG        .SLG       HR      RBI       BB       SO 

Pujols           115        435        .315         .586        30        86        71          54
 
Votto             110        404       .322          .594        28        79        67          90         

Pujols is 2nd in home runs, 1st in RBI, 4th in .AVG, 2nd in .SLG, 2nd in .OBP
Votto is   3rd in home runs, 3rd in RBI, 1st in .AVG, 1st in .SLG,  1st in .OBP

Basically, Pujols leads in 2 of the three triple crown categories, but Votto has him on average, slugging and on-base.  The question will be how long Albert continues on this tear.  In the matter of a couple weeks he has managed to raise his average from slightly below .300 to a fantastic .315 only .07 points of the lead.  One more home run will tie Adam Dunn for the lead there and he maintains a safe distance as the leader in RBI.  If Albert manages to raise his average, he will definitely be a favorite to repeat as the MVP.

Pujols also leads Votto in walks (2nd in NL), while striking out a whole lot less.  He has also hit more doubles and stolen more bases, but Votto has scored more runs.

The Intangibles
Not a year goes by without the debate of what “valuable” really means.  Is Albert Pujols more valuable because of his monster numbers, despite having a slugger like Matt Holiday on the team?  Or is Votto more valuable because no one expected the Reds to be in 1st place this far into the season?  Is Albert more valuable because his ability to do this year after year or is Votto more valuable because you look at 2010 and 2010 alone.  No matter how you answer these questions, other factors will always figure in the MVP voting that you can’t always know.  A big one is getting your team into the postseason and remains to be seen which of these guys (or if maybe both) will do that.

My Conclusion
This is a two horse race between these two guys at this point.  Other guys have good numbers, but not GREAT numbers like Votto and Pujols have put up so far.  The other power hitters don’t have the average and the high average guys have low power numbers.  But these two are examples of the perfect combo.  The remaining 1 1/2 months of the season will reveal who has in him to complete the 162 game grind still producing for his team.

But for now?  It’s too close to call.

According to my stats, a lot of you are reading but not very many are commenting, so let’s change that.  I’d love to hear what you have to say.  You can start now by weighing in on this discussion.

-&nb
sp;  Who’s your call between these two?
–   Do you think I should have shown love to guys like Dunn or Gonzalez as MVP candidates?
–   Will Albert ever win the Triple Crown?  Will anybody???
–   Do you think Stephen Hill slept with his home run ball tonight?

Or anything else that tickles your fancy…..

Glad to be done playing the Cubs,
Tiffany

The melting pot: Reds win, Loshe returns, Albert’s on fire & more Cy Young talk

Ugh.  The Reds beat the Marlins 5-4.  Maybe the Fish were watching the
Cardinals game because with two walks and a base hit, they loaded the
bases in the 9th with nobody out.  Unfortunately, they only squeezed out
one run on a double play ball.  Uggla then popped up to end the game
which let Cincinnati pull back even with the ‘Birds.  Seems like
whatever we do, we just can’t shake this team.  I’d love to put some
distance between us, but it seems like one of those years where it just
might come down to the wire.

In other news, Wainwright’s top two competitors for the Cy Young award pitched yesterday and today.  I already talked yesterday
about how Josh Johnson was roughed up pretty bad by the Reds.  He took
himself out of my top 3, for the time being, with my 3rd place vote now
going to Atlanta’s Tim Hudson.  He’s been quietly putting together a
pretty decent season.  Hudson is now 2nd in ERA and 4th in wins.  The
only thing that hurts him is the low strikeout total.  But outs are outs
and he’s definitely in the running to finish in the top 3.

Roy
Halladay, however, threw another excellent game and put the pressure
squarely back on Wainwright.  Those two are neck and neck.  Halladay
went 8 innings today, allowing no runs and striking out 7.  For awhile,
it seemed like he might have another complete game shutout to add to his
resume, but luckily his pitch count was 113 and he was pulled after 8
innings.

Still, Halladay managed to increase support for his case
for the NL Cy Young by lowering his ERA to 2.24 and picking up his 15th
win.  And did I mention those 7 strikeouts?  Wow, this guy really does
it all.  He’s now 3rd in ERA, 3rd in wins and remains 1st in strikeouts
by a ton.

At this point in time, I still give the edge to Wainwright (as I did here)
because I think being 1st in wins and ERA goes a long way, but it’s not
over by a long shot.  If Wainwright’s ERA drops a lot in next couple
starts and he fails to get to that magic number of 20 wins, Halladay
could surpass him.  But hopefully Adam will deliver another
Wainwright-esque performance and this could be a fun battle to watch all
the way through September.

As for tomorrow’s game, Kyle Loshe
returns to pitch for the first time since May 22nd.  He was far from
impressive in those 9 starts, so let’s hope he comes back bigger and
better that ever.  Here’s also hoping that Albert continue to rake. 
He’s always tended to get hot in August and this year is no exception. 
He’s only gone hitless one game this month and is hitting .447 and
slugging .830 for the month.  Are you kidding???  He’s also already gone
deep 5 times with 13 ribbies and scored 15 runs.  I think it’s safe to
say he’s feeling good at the plate right now.  His average is up to
.313, instead of hovering around the .300 mark as it has been so long. 
He’s back in the top 5 in the league for average and of course continues
to be at the top in home runs and RBIs.  Albert for MVP and Wainwright
for Cy Young could be a perfect addition to World Series win #11,
right?  But I’m getting ahead of myself.  First things first.  And that
first thing is Loshe getting us the series win against the Cubbies.

Wanting to see a healthy Loshe do his thing,
Tiffany

How is the NL CY Young front runner even a question?

Hey Phillips, how’s that broom taste?  Victory is sweet indeed.  And even sweeter when it comes on the heels of some idiotic comments by the Reds second baseman.  Man, I love baseball.

Well, today’s an off-day.  Normally, I hate off-days.  I love watching Cardinal baseball.  But today is good timing for one because I can continue to play catch up with my blog and talk about something that is driving me crazy as I read various message boards or articles that are out there.

I’m hearing a lot of people saying that Josh Johnson is the best Cy Young award candidate right now.  Really?  Come on.  I know that wins aren’t everything (which is why Jimenez is gone from contention, in my opinion, despite the 17 wins), but Johnson with his 10 wins is only leading in ERA and it’s not by much.

In my opinion, if the award was to be handed out today, you have to go with Wainwright.  Maybe I’m biased and feel free to tell me if I am, but I don’t see how you can’t make a case for Wainwright as the number 1 candidate.  And honestly, number 2?  Not Johnson.  I would pick Roy Halladay, who is also surprisingly getting not much attention.  And then Johnson would be third.

I mean what else does the guy have to do?  If he didn’t have you convinced before, he’s trying everything he can now.  In his last 3 starts, he has pitched 23 innings (including a complete game), gave up 1 (yes, ONE) earned run and struck out 16.  For those of you keeping score at home, that’s called DOMINATION.  If it wasn’t for that blasted rain delay, he’d probably have another compete game, shutout and a few more Ks.

But, it’s a year long award (as the one-hit wonder Ubaldo is finding out), not a 3 game long award.  And there is more baseball left to play.  Things could change over the next month and a half, but handing it out today, it’s Wainwright’s to lose.  As a Cardinal fan, I love knowing that Wainwright is taking the ball.  Just like I loved knowing he was closing it out in 2006.  I trust him the way I have very few Cardinal pitchers in my lifetime.  You just know he’s going to get the job done.  Of course I will admit, that is all very subjective.  I have rarely seen Johnson pitch and my observance of Halladay has been sparse as well and I see Wainwright pitch all the time.  I know how he buckles knees with that big sweeping curve and gets Major Leaguers to look like little leaguers as they swing at balls in the dirt.  It’s beautiful.  So I have to go on stats and stats alone.  And still Wainwright gets my vote.

Let’s break it down.

First, the famous “triple crown” categories for each of the contenders.

                           W          ERA           K
Jiminez              17          2.55         143       
Wainwright        17          1.99         158
Halladay            14          2.34         168
Johnson            10          1.97         156

Looking at these numbers, Ubaldo Jimenez is immediately out of it.  All he has going for him is his wins, most of which he got the first half of the season when he was better than he is now.  His ERA and strikeouts, while good in any other context, are laughable for a Cy Young winner, when you look at the other 3 pitchers stats.  Still, I include him because some people just LOVE wins and if he starts tearing up and the other 3 have a meltdown, I suppose he could have a chance.

So now you have 3 pitchers, all with very good stats.  Wainwright leads in wins, Johnson with ERA and Halladay with strikeouts.  When you put it like that, it looks to be a close race.  But how about looking at it like this?

  • Wainwright is 1st in wins, 2nd in ERA and 3rd in strikeouts
  • Halladay is 3rd in wins, 4th in ERA and 1st in strikeouts
  • Johnson is 14th in wins,1st in ERA and 4th in strikeouts

In my opinion, this eliminates Johnson and gives Wainwright a slight edge of Halladay.  I will admit it’s close.  Halladay is right there with Wainwright.  Looking at other non conventional stats, such as WHIP, we see the numbers break down like this:

  • Wainwright has a WHIP of 0.97 (1st in the league)
  • Halladay has a WHIP of 1.03 (still good, but edged out again by Waino)

And then the numbers that very few are talking about.  And if Halladay would get voted in over Wainwright, this is the only reason I could see why.

                                      IP              CG              SHO
Wainwright                  176.1            5                   2
Halladay                      185               8                   3

Roy Halladay is clearly an innings eater monster, throwing 8 complete games.  That’s the kind of thing that keeps your team in it for the season, saves a bullpen, etc. etc.  Wainwright’s doesn’t look too shabby though.  5 complete games is nothing to sneeze at.  Nobody else is even in the discussion here.  If it wasn’t for LaRuss’a crazy love for the “right matchup” Wainwright probably would have a few more.

But the shutout stat is basically dead even, with a slight edge to Halladay.  But combining these numbers with the previous, Wainwright gets my vote at this point in the season, not to mention when you look at things like Wainwright is undefeated when given 4 or more runs.

The question is what will happen the rest of the way.  Johnson starts tomorrow and Halladay on Saturday.  Let’s talk again after those starts and see where we stand.

Feel free to comment if you agree / disagree.  I’d love to hear who you think I missed or overlooked.  Hudson?  Latos?  Which boy on your team is not getting the media love?

Hoping Phillips is using his offday to realize that he’s a tool,
Tiffany