Individual Awards, part 2 (Cy Young)

As I mentioned in my previous post, I have given up hope on the season and have begun to look at the Cardinals chances in the big 3 individual awards.  I already covered MVP and now will look at Cy Young.

The contender here for the Redbirds is Adam Wainwright.  Many feel he was robbed in 2009 from the award and he definitely is putting up Cy Young caliber numbers this year.  The problem is that the NL is STACKED with pitching in a year that many have called, “The Year of the Pitcher.”  This is a year that has been filled with no-no’s galore, perfect games, (that’s right, plural) and all kinds of crazy pitching feats.

I personally believe that the only real competition for Wainwright is Roy Halladay.  But let’s go ahead and look at a few of the dark horses that could garner some 1st or 2nd place votes.  They are: Tim Hudson, Mat Latos and Ubaldo Jimenez.

First, we will compare where they stand in the traditional triple crown pitching categories.

Triple Crown Pitching
Wainwright      2.50 ERA (4th),   18 wins (1st), 199 K (4th)
Halladay          2.44 ERA (3rd),  18 wins (1st),  201 K (2nd)
Hudson           2.62  ERA (5th),  15 wins (4th), 122 K (34th)
Latos               2.43  ERA (2nd), 14 wins (7th), 174 K (11th)
Jimenez          2.75  ERA (7th),  18 wins (1st),  186 K (6th)

Wainwright and Halladay are the only two pitchers in the top 5 of all of these categories, which will probably go a long way with voters.  And for those who are still obsessed with wins (I am not one of them), if one of these current 18 game winners (Waino, Halladay and Jimenez) gets to 20 wins, that might appeal to some of the voters.

Then, there are other factors that we have to look at when discussing the best pitcher this year.  There’s the often-debated WHIP stat.

WHIP
Wainwright       1.05 WHIP (3rd)
Halladay           1.05 WHIP (3rd)
Hudson             1.13 WHIP (11th)
Latos                 0.99 WHIP (1st)
Jimenez            1.15 WHIP (14th)

But I think more importantly are these 3 stats.  Complete games, shutouts and innings pitched.  A guy that can eat up a lot of innings, while maintaining a low ERA is invaluable to a club.  And this is where the five guys stack up.  I call these the ‘endurance and domination categories.’

Endurance and Domination
Wainwright      5 CG,  2 SHO, 216.1 IP (2nd)
Halladay          8 CG,  3 SHO, 228.2 IP (1st)
Hudson           1 CG,  0 SHO, 203.0 IP (5th)
Latos              1 CG,  1 SHO, 166.2 IP (35th)
Jimenez         4 CG,  2 SHO, 196.1 IP (9th)

Other factors
As I said before, it could come down to which guy gets to 20 wins.  It’s
up for grabs.  Any of these guys could have already been there and
several of them will have a few more chances to hit that mark before the
season end.  I don’t think 20 wins is the end-all, be-all, but Wainwright and Halladay are ridiculous close this year.  Some voters might seek to right a wrong from last year by giving Wainwright the award this year, that he finished 3rd for last year.  Other votes might look at Halladay’s career and say that Doc deserves the award.  It can be hard to predict.

The Verdict
As it stands right now, I give Halladay the award by a smidge.  Right now, Halladay edges out Wainwright in ERA and strikeouts (both by the slimmest of margins) and they are tied in wins.  He has pitched more innings, throwing an incredible 8 complete games, 3 of them shutouts.  Thought it shouldn’t be a factor, he has also thrown a perfect game this year.  Don’t think that his perfecto won’t be on the minds of some voters, when comparing two guys who are literally a hair’s breadth apart.

But that’s if the season ended today.  If Wainwright could string a couple of good starts together, he could inch ahead in the race.  Here’s hoping for that.

Looking for Wainwright to finish strong,
Tiffany

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2 comments

  1. devilabrit

    I like the comparisons you’ve done here, I too am not a big fan of wins, way to many factors decide a win, for the Phillies you’ve only got to look at Hamels to see wins do not show the might of a pitcher, I thoughy Wainwright should have got it last year, I think you are also right with Halladay inching out Wainwright for it this year too…

    -peter

    Phillies Outside

  2. tiffk99

    Peter,
    Thank you. I think it always helps to see all of the key stats laid out to compare easily. MLB.com used to have a way to do this, but I guess it’s no longer a feature.

    Obviously, I hope Wainwright wins the award, but you can’t argue with the season Halladay is having. It’s his to lose in his last starts of the season.

    You should check out my post, “How I feel.” (http://redbirdfever.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/09/how_i_feel.html) A poster basically implied anybody not voting for Ubaldo Jimenez was an idiot because of not giving up many home runs. As if that’s the only stat that matters! 🙂 I would like to see your response to his comments.

    – Tiffany
    http://redbirdfever.mlblogs.com

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